IAP AGCM 4.1對(duì)淮河流域夏季降水的預(yù)報(bào)技巧評(píng)估

doi:10.3969/2017jms.0045

首頁 > 過刊瀏覽>2018年第38卷第4期 >489-497. DOI:10.3969/2017jms.0045

IAP AGCM 4.1對(duì)淮河流域夏季降水的預(yù)報(bào)技巧評(píng)估
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                        10.3969/2017jms.0045
                    
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基金項(xiàng)目:公益性行業(yè)（氣象）科研專項(xiàng)重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目（GYHY201406021）；國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目（2016YFC0402702）；國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目（41575095）

Evaluation on the forecast skill of summer rainfall over Huaihe River Basin with IAP AGCM4.1

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基于中國科學(xué)院大氣物理研究所新一代大氣環(huán)流模式IAP AGCM 4.1共30 a （1981—2010年）的集合回報(bào)試驗(yàn)結(jié)果，評(píng)估了模式對(duì)淮河流域夏季降水的預(yù)報(bào)技巧。分析結(jié)果表明，模式總體上可以較好地再現(xiàn)出淮河流域夏季平均降水南多北少的空間分布特征，其中模式模擬的6月降水量與觀測(cè)值的空間相關(guān)可達(dá)0.93。但降水強(qiáng)度與觀測(cè)相比具有系統(tǒng)性的偏差，且模式模擬的降水年際變率顯著偏弱?；诮邓嗥较嚓P(guān)系數(shù)的確定性預(yù)報(bào)技巧分析表明，模式對(duì)流域西南部夏季降水的預(yù)測(cè)技巧較高，達(dá)到0.2以上，且模式對(duì)6月降水異常的預(yù)測(cè)能力相對(duì)最好，7月次之。針對(duì)淮河不同子流域的預(yù)報(bào)技巧分析表明，IAP AGCM 4.1對(duì)蚌埠、魯臺(tái)子、王家壩水文控制站以上集水面積的夏季面雨量異常具有一定的預(yù)報(bào)技巧，30 a集合回報(bào)的時(shí)間相關(guān)系數(shù)分別為0.11、0.13、0.16?；诮邓燃?jí)的概率預(yù)報(bào)技巧評(píng)估表明，模式對(duì)7月淮河流域南部少雨事件具有很好的預(yù)報(bào)能力，同時(shí)對(duì)6月流域中部多雨事件的預(yù)報(bào)技巧也較高。

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The forecast skill of summer ranifall over Huaihe River Basin (HRB) was evaluated based on the 30-year ensemble hindcasting experiment from 1981 to 2010 of IAP Atmospheric General Circulation Model Version 4.1 (IAP AGCM4.1). The results show that the IAP AGCM4.1 can generally reproduce the observed spatial distribution of summer-averaged rainfall over the HRB, the spatial correlation coefficient between precipitation and observation simulated by the model reaches 0.93 for June. However, systematic bias can be found in rainfall intensity and observation, and the rainfall interannual variability simulated by the model is also significantly weaker than the observation. The deterministic predictive skill of summer rainfall over HRB by IAP AGCM4.1, in terms of anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), was found to be relatively higher in Southwestern HRB, where the ACC is larger than 0.2. The deterministic rainfall forecast skill for the whole HRB is the highest for June, and July is the second. For the mean areal rainfall of main sub-catchments in Huaihe River, IAP AGCM4.1 does show certain forecast skill, with ACC reaching 0.11 for Bengbu drainage basin, 0.13 for Lutaizi drainage basin, and 0.16 for Wangjiaba drainage basin, respectively. Based on the probabilistic forecast skill using rainfall, it's found that the IAP AGCM4.1 shows a high skill in forecasting the below-normal rainfall events occurred in Southern part of HRB in July, and the above-normal rainfall events in the central part of HRB in June.

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陳子煊,林朝暉,江志紅,俞越. IAP AGCM 4.1對(duì)淮河流域夏季降水的預(yù)報(bào)技巧評(píng)估.氣象科學(xué),2018,38(4):489-497 CHEN Zixuan, LIN Zhaohui, JIANG Zhihong, YU Yue. Evaluation on the forecast skill of summer rainfall over Huaihe River Basin with IAP AGCM4.1. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2018,38(4):489-497

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收稿日期:2017-05-07
最后修改日期:2017-05-11
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在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-09-14
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